Development of crop yield forecast models under FASAL- a case study of kharif rice in West Bengal

Crop yield forecasts are prepared at District, State and National level under the ongoing project “Forecasting Agricultural output using Space, Agrometeorology Land based observations (FASAL)”, operational Ministry of Agriculture, Govt. India in collaboration with Space Application Centre (SAC), Institute Economic Growth (IEG) Meteorological Department (IMD). As per mandate project, crop being generated for 13 major crops. Different models used by these organizations generation forecasts. Under FASAL IMD 46 Agromet Field units (AMFU) located different Universities (SAUs), ICAR institutes, IITs, develops intra-seasonal forecast crops during kharif rabi seasons statistical model. Within IMD, addition to Meteorology Division, all Regional Centres (RMCs) (MCs), states also working this project. Long period data as well weekly weather meteorological standard week have been development district models. For developing forecast, composite variables studied. Simple weighted indices individual interaction two a time considering throughout growing season. Minimum set required develop model mentioned paper. In order demonstrate requirement, methodology through regression technique along interpretations, relevant West Bengal taken up. is Mahalanabis Forecasting (MNCFC) on state IMD.